Archive for the ‘Finance’ Category

Marketing

Friday, October 5th, 2007

     I haven’t written about investing for awhile.  I recently sold my holdings in Apple, it gapped up about a week ago and the volume seemed to be drying up.  I made my 20% gain on it, although not in the IBD-recommended eight weeks or less.  So I sold, making a small profit. 

     Other issues I’ve been scoping out have been Crocs and Force Protection.  They’ve done well this week, but they went up on extremely light volume yesterday while the rest of the market chugged higher.  That leaves me a tad concerned.  Crocs is the maker of the shoes everyone seems to be buying.  The danger there of course is that everyone who wants them has them, and earnings will dry up.  Force Protection makes the Mine-Resistant Anti-Ambush vehicles that are in-demand in Downrangeland.  They’re going to be facing some competition from Oshkosh trucks at a minimum, and depending on which team wins the most contracts, Force Protection may go nowhere.  I’d consider it a fairly good risk, but I’m prepared to have to sell later on with no profit. 

     I’ll offer the standard disclaimer:  I’m an amateur investor.  You must do your own research.  I tend to buy things late and have to sell early, making only a little profit.  By the time you read this, there’s a good chance the stock will be on the way down. 

Chris’s Market Watch

Wednesday, February 28th, 2007

    Yesterday’s market action was a bit of a surprise.  I wouldn’t quite say it’s time to go short on all positions, but it certainly looks like cash is king right now!

    Never forget, all you stock investors out there, if the big money is leaving stocks, it’s got to be going somewhere.  The housing market in many areas is in a slump, and the Trumps and Kiyosakis of the world tend to be big in real estate anyway.  Gold has been steadily increasing since the last series of sell-offs ended last October.  Bonds don’t look too good right now unless you’re already holding them (but then, new issues may be better than nothing, at least in the short run). 

    But then, the market could rally tomorrow, too!

Chris’ Market Watch

Friday, July 21st, 2006

     I am by no means a professional investor.  I’m not just a hobby investor, either.  Call me a serious amateur, perhaps with a serious lack of time to really get good at being a part-time pro on the side.

     In any case, here are some things I know that I thought I’d share:

  • Capital is the stuff we use to make business go
  • Goods are what capital makes
  • Cash is the medium of exchange to acquire goods or capital
  • Humans are what make capital and cash
  • More humans equals more capital and cash
  • When a population is expanding, so is cash and capital
  • All that cash is going somewhere. . . .

     With all of this in mind, especially the last item, my object is always to try to figure out where everyone is going to start putting their money before they all figure out where they’re going to put their money. 

     In mid-2000 at the start of the big market slide, where did everyone put their money that they pulled out of the stock market that made the market go down? I haven’t done any serious analysis, but I would offer that real estate was booming around that time.  It kept going while the stock market started recovering in 2003, though.  So, where was the money coming from that was floating both real estate and the stock market?

     We know that real estate is now cooling off, and interest rates are probably about to peak.  I suspect a lot of people are doing what I’m doing.  Lately I’ve found some pretty attractive CDs and bonds.  Perhaps everyone else is taking money from stocks and locking in these higher-than-recent average and less risky places?

     Maybe everyone’s gone speculating in oil and gold futures? Note that gold also went up over the last few years, from the $330 range in 2003 (don’t quote me on that year), up to around $730 early this year.  It fell back when the market rallied earlier this year, but has recovered back to $620 or so this summer.

     Then what next? What is everyone else going to start doing next week?